Consumer discretionary stocks are also close to their highs of the cycle, and are up about 65% since June 2020. What's interesting is that although credit did lead equity in this sector this cycle, we're not necessarily expecting that to be the case if industry weakness emerges. -0.61% 165% 90% 120% 150% 180% -0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Bloomberg IG Cons Cyc Index Spreads (Change) Cons Disc ETF (XLY PX Scaled to 100) Cons Cycl ...

... 60% 36% 63% 38% International 40% 24% 37% 22% 100% 60% 100% 60% Strategas Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 26% 16% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 20% 12% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 14% 8% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 10% 6% 12% 7% iShares S&P 500 Core ETF (IVV) US MC Value 3% 2% 2% 1% iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (IJJ) US SC Core 2% 1% 1% 1% ...

... AQUA Evoqua Water Technologies Corp* XYL Xylem *no longer trading or excluded 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21 Jan '22 Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23 Jan '24 Jul '24 Jan '25 Jul '25 Green Energy Basket Relative To iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (100 = 3/31/2020, Excludes FUV, AQUA, REGI, SPWR) IRA Signed Trump Elected Trump Inauguration 7/1/2025 www.strategasrp.com PLEASE DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE 9 COMPANIES WITH A STRONG LOBBYING PRESENCE HAVE OUTPERFORMED ...

During Positive Performance Years Source: Strategas, Bloomberg, 6/30/25 Strategas ETF Research Please Do Not Redistribute See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Monday, June 30, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com MOST FREQUENTLY ASKED ... The below and following pages were the most frequently asked questions and requested charts about the ETF universe. What can we learn from flows data? Flows aren't a signal, but ...

... Govt policy (including emergency help for banks) has helped avoid a systemic crisis. Thus far 2025 has not seen a systemic credit event. Sentiment Our package of sentiment data sits in a much more supportive stance today than at the start of the year. Equity ETF flows continue to suggest hesitancy among investors and category flows are skewed towards short duration bonds. At the sector level, cyclical sectors continue to see outflows, with Financials flagging as extreme. If ...

... CAPITAL MARKETS REMAIN FIRM AS WELL Strategas Technical & Macro Research 17 6/27/2025 S&P Capital Markets Industry - Equal Weight 50 & 200-Day MA Capital Markets Relative to S&P 500 - Equal Weight Positive / Negative Trend Signals   FINANCIAL SECTOR ETF FLOWS POSE LITTLE RISK HERE 18 6/27/2025 SPDR Financials Sector ETF (XLF) 50 & 200-Day Average Financials Sector ETF Flows Rolling 65-Day Sum, $ Bn +2 Standard Deviations -2 Standard Deviations From yesterday's ETF & ...

Week: The market started this week of resilient to headlines and quickly turned offensive as we are seeing demand for upside in the options market among broad ETFs and mega-cap tech including NVDA, AAPL and TSLA. The call buying spilled over into more cyclical ETFs like KRE and XLF as well. ... Most single names don't have quarter end expirations, so we have seen quite a bit of activity focused on options expiring this Friday. The upside demand has pushed skew on major ETFs back ...

immediately following the November election, however, the strength from Financials this time around is not being accompanied with particularly aggressive ETF flows. ... Private Equity/Credit names, this group remains firm. FINANCIAL SECTOR ETF FLOWS POSE LITTLE RISK HERE Please Do Not Redistribute 5 6/25/2025 SPDR Financials Sector ETF (XLF) 50 & 200-Day Average Financials Sector ETF Flows Rolling 65-Day Sum, $ Bn +2 Standard Deviations -2 Standard Deviations From yesterday's ...

... Odds (Right) Strategas' Dem Healthcare Basket (Left) 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21 Jan '22 Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23 Jan '24 Jul '24 Jan '25 Green Energy Basket Relative To iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (100 = 3/31/2020, Excludes FUV, AQUA, REGI, SPWR) IRA Signed Trump Elected Trump Inauguration What Needs To Change In The Next Senate Text To Pass The House * SALT Deduction * Non-Solar/Wind IRA Cuts * Medicaid Provider Tax or Some Offset ...

host a conference call at 11am to discuss the three major macro policy issues impacting financial markets: Geopolitics, Tariffs and the 7/9 deadline, and Tax Legislation in the senate. * Divergence in ETF skew has been quite interesting. ... This is especially interesting given Chris Verrone's work showing financials and industrials re-emerging leadership and poor absolute and relative performance of oil and energy names. Of note the USD ETF (UUP) has flat relative skew as ...