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4Q Estimates Unchanged During The 3Q Reporting Season:
Nov 25, 2025 ... Typically, longer-term estimates experience a gradual downward revision, but the 2026 estimate has stayed in a relatively tight range of $300-$310 since its initial release. We first noticed this trend with the 2025 estimate. EPS estimates appear more accurate at the start than in the past. Leverage Unwind Halted For Now Our basket of companies based on those that have a levered ETF tied to their ticker peaked on 10/15/25. Yesterday was the first day we saw the recent decline ...
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Overexposure To Quality, Leverage Activity Remains High:
Nov 25, 2025 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 Cumulative 2025 Equity ETF Flows ($MM) Equity ETF Flows Weekly Sum ($MM) Trading Week Equity ETF Flows Weekly Sum ($MM) Diamond = Cumulative 2025 Flows Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, November 25, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com FACTOR ...
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Video Slides:
Nov 21, 2025 above forward VIX... real time measure of fear. Equity ETF Flows S&P Futures Positioning 10-Day Put/Call Ratio VIX ... Treasury Bill ETFs Defensive Sectors Small Cap Equity E.M Equities Short Duration Bonds Thematic Funds Intermediate TSYs Precious Metals Tech Sector Long Duration TSYs Munis Category ETF Flows Since Bitcoin Peak (10/6/25) $MM THIS IS NOW A CHANGE... CRYPTO & CREDIT OUTFLOWS 12 11/21/2025 Source: Strategas, Bloomberg, ETF Action, 11/17/25 If one were looking ...
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Sector Focus: Financials:
Nov 20, 2025 Financials relative profile has deteriorated (both cap and equal-weight), while the SPDR Financials sector ETF flirts with important support. ... on this below), but lack of a response here paints a trickier picture into '26. Sector ETF flows have cooled recently, that's supportive. ... - Please Do Not Redistribute 8 11/20/2025 Invesco KBW Bank ETF: KBWB 50 & 200-Day MA Invesco KBW Regional Bank ETF: KBWR 50 & 200-Day MA We feel confident in cueing off the action from ...
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VIX and Regular Expiration:
Nov 19, 2025 Bullish contrarians here may want to sell puts to buy upside calls or call spreads, creating a buffer to the downside before losses kick in vs. direct stock or ETF exposure. Perhaps a toe dip into NVDAs earnings, although Friday looks like a preferred entry point. 11/19/25 Strategas Securities - Equity Derivatives Strategy PROPRIETARY INFORMATION - PLEASE DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE 2 11/19/25 Strategas Securities - Equity Derivatives Strategy PROPRIETARY INFORMATION - PLEASE DO NOT ...
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Crypto Flew Too Close To The Sun:
Nov 18, 2025
ETF Research Tuesday, November 18, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com CRYPTO FLEW TOO CLOSE TO THE SUN There's a few cross currents in our ETF work today - aggressive flows, leverage wipeouts, as well as a Crypto flush. On that score, diversification remains unloved to us. Takeaways and key charts are as follows: 1) Equity flows remain hot, leverage wipeouts, and hedges are still timely. Trailing 65-day equity ETF flows are in ...
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Price Shapes Narrative, Not Oversold (Yet), Support 6350-6400:
Nov 18, 2025 ... Getting closer for Tech. IWM NEARING SUPPORT & IN BALLPARK OF AN OVERSOLD CONDITION Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 7 11/18/2025 R2000 ETF: IWM 50 & 200-Day MA & 65-Day Low Line Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals 224 3m low line at 224 for the IWM with the 200-day nearby at 220... if uptrend is to remain valid, this should be support. CYCLICALS vs. DEFENSIVES APPROACHING OVERSOLD & NEARING ...
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Allocators' Note: The "Rules" of the Past Likely Less Reliable for
Portfolios of the Future:
Nov 17, 2025 ... 6% - - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Commodities 40% 4% - - Aberdeen Standard All Commodity ETF (BCI) 100% 10% - - Strategas Recommended ALTERNATIVE Allocation (Nov'25) Strategas ... Allocation SMA Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 26% 15% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 20% 12% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 14% 8% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 10% 6% 12% 7% ...
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Reality Check For A.I. Spending & Private Credit:
Nov 17, 2025 ... single-stock ETFs, and a basket of companies tied to those products is already down -16%. Notably, many of these names overlap with the AI trade with Nvidia representing the second largest share of leveraged ETF assets under ... DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES LEVERAGE WITHIN EQUITIES THROUGH ETFs THIS CYCLE 20% 17% 16% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% ... as of 11/17/25 VanEck Business Development Company Income ETF Holdings LTM Div Yield YTD Price Return 11/17/25 Strategas ...
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Kick Save Off Support, But With More Defensive Leadership Tone:
Nov 17, 2025 ... 50 & 200-Day MA C. Staples Relative to S&P 500 - Equal Weight Positive / Negative Trend Signals There's a more defensive tone to the tape, but it hasn't included any meaningful price or relative turn for the Staples yet. -$15,000 -$10,000 -$5,000 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Since Sept. '24 Rate Cut $MM Tech Financials Industrials Utilities Comm. ...
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