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Nervousness Builds Up into Midterms, Job Numbers and Earnings:
Nov 2, 2026 Notable declines included GOOGL -12.64%, NOW -26.95%, RDDT -29.22%, and INTC -28.57%. Oct '26 ETF Description Oct 16, 2026 Oct 23, 2026 Oct 30, 2026 Return SPY ... VIX Index (red) & VXN Index (blue) intraday price action, Friday, October 30, 2026 Leveraged ETFs saw end-of-day rebalancing-forced selling of more than $35Bn ... straddles pricing in a move of 1.87% in either direction for SPY and 3.27% for QQQ. Both ETFs experienced moves of roughly that magnitude last Friday alone. ...
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No Macro Game-Changing Event Puts The Democrats In Striking Distance To
Sweep The US Midterm Elections:
Nov 2, 2026 ... In fact, the data center ETF, SRVR, has underperformed the S&P 500 as the odds of the Democrats winning in key data center states have increased (TX, ... Lead of Democratic Governors in Data Center States & SRVR Datacenter ETF rel S&P 500 Avg Dem Governor Lead (Left) SRVR rel S&P 500 (Right, ... 155 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 Oct-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Dem Sweep Odds (Right, Inverted) Source: Factset The data ...
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Oct Market Balance Sheet: Market "Balance Sheet" Flashes Yellow:
Oct 30, 2026 ... The market is currently trading at 22x TTM earnings, well above its historical average of 16x since 1950. Given the recent rise in long-term interest rates, this leaves the market vulnerable to a sell-off. We are forecasting S&P operating earnings of $407 in 2027 and a target price of 8,140 for the Index (assuming a 20x multiple). Sentiment While we mark Sentiment as a Liability, our inputs are shifting. Broad Equity ETF flows have slowed and sector positioning skews ...
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Cyclical ETF Restraint And How To Play A Rebound:
Oct 27, 2026 Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. See Appendix for Important Disclosures. ETF Research Tuesday, October 27, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com CYCLICAL ETF RESTRAINT AND HOW TO PLAY A REBOUND Here's an interesting stat about where the ETF backdrop stands: Cyclical relative Defensive ... We see this in the spread between Equity and Bond ETF flows too, another measure in its bottom quintile. It's a low bar for cyclical areas to ...
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Busiest Week of Earnings Season and FOMC Ahead:
Oct 26, 2026
ETF Description Oct 9, 2026 Oct 16, 2026 Oct 23, 2026 SPY S&P 500 1.16% -1.97% -0.43% XLK Technology -0.52% -7.70% -0.13% XLY Cons. Disc. 2.55% -0.35% 0.57% XLC ... QQQ fell -2.85%, its worst daily return since June 23, and the Mag7 ETF (MAGS) fell -3.35% as all other members of the group fell in sympathy, except for AAPL, ... META 5Yr CDS With financing hurdles top of mind, neocloud names continued to feel pressure, with NCLD Roundhill Neocloud ETF) falling -7.07%, while on the other ...
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Leadership & Macro In Transition:
Oct 26, 2026 ... REMAINS IN A DOWNTREND Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 12 10/26/2026 China ETF: FXI 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals Trend turned negative back in March and has shown no signs of any durable improvement since. INDIA IS NO DIFFERENT... Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 13 10/26/2026 India ETF: INDA 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals Peaked back ...
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Video Slides:
Oct 23, 2026 ... Pessimism 38 th percentile Equity ETF Flows S&P Futures Positioning 10-Day Put/Call Ratio VIX Curve I.I. Bull / Bear Ratio Consensus % Bullish AAII Bull/Bear Ratio Policy Uncertainty Median Percentile Strategas Sentiment Dashboard Current Reading vs. Historical Range MANY COMPONENTS NOW MORE SUPPORTIVE, PARTICULARLY ETF FLOWS Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 25 10/23/2026 Todd Sohn's ETF work indicates flows are in the 16 th percentile historically. ...
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List of Everything But AI ETFs:
Oct 22, 2026 Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. See Appendix for Important Disclosures. ETF Research Wednesday, October 21, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com LIST OF EVERYTHING BUT A.I. ETFs One of the great joys ... ETFs" in search of an exposure excluding AI-related firms. In an environment where Tech + Tech-adjacent firms are (depending whom you ask) over 50% of the S&P 500, it's quite a challenge. We attempted to distill down the large-cap ETF ...
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Options Setup Into The Brazilian Election:
Oct 22, 2026 That said, she also points out that, in the short term, a Bolsonaro win appears largely priced in and that further capital inflows could depend on policy delivery. 10/22/26 Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 2 The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has seen intense options activity, with a focus on call contracts, since August 24, when Bolsonaro's odds improved significantly relative to Lula's in the polls. Following the first round of Brazil's general election ...
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Tighter Fiscal/Monetary Policy For 2027; Data Center Outlook Key To
Overcoming Policy Headwinds:
Oct 21, 2026 ... The data center ETFs have been underperforming the S&P 500 since Virginia and Texas both began talking about more regulation of data centers in late June. The data center ETF, SRVR, relative to the S&P 500 has moved inversely with Democratic governor candidate polling. As the Dems leads in data center state governor races increase, the data center ETF has ... Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Oct-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Source: Factset The tech industry lobbied to ...
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