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Constructive Near Term, Watching for Volatility Risks:
Jul 6, 2026 Dispersion within large cap tech remained significant, with a rebound in the Mag7 cohort on one end, the MAGS ETF rose ... The VIX declined to 16.15 heading into the long weekend, down from 18.41 the prior week. 2Q26 Return ETF Description Jun ... and forced deleveraging, especially as leveraged ETFs continue to amplify market moves, particularly in tech and semis. ... remaining cautious on semiconductor volatility, which is being amplified by the daily rebalancing of leveraged ETFs. ...
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2Q Policy Review in Charts:
Jul 6, 2026 ... 104 106 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Indexed to 100 on 1/1/26) Source: FactSet May 19th 7/6/26 Proprietary ... Jan '26 Mar '26 May '26 Jul '26 Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF Rel S&P 500 7/6/26 Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 21 ... 110 120 Mar-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Mar-26 Jul-26 Homebuilders ETF rel S&P 500 & # of Rate Cuts Priced in Through June '27 XHB rel S&P 500 Rate ...
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Our Base Case, Risks, & Surprises:
Jul 6, 2026 ... Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 6 7/6/2026 S&P 500 60 Minute Ticks, Last 60 Days 7540 7295 SHORT-TERM QQQ CHART LOOKS WORSE Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 7 7/6/2026 QQQ 60 Minute Ticks, Last 60 Days 738 702 RSP JUST FINE... Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 8 7/6/2026 Equal-Weight S&P ETF: RSP 60 Minute Ticks, Last 60 Days ✓ Nothing wrong here... HEALTHCARE 20-DAY HIGHS ARE SURGING, DECISIVE BREAKOUT ...
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Summer Reading:
Jul 2, 2026 ... I have always believed that asking a sell-side analyst about what they are doing with their own money would reveal more about what he or she might really believe about the markets than any 40-page, fancy pants PowerPoint presentation. I shorted ETF FXB on the news of Starmer's retrograde approach to economic policy last week. 1.34 1.05 1.25 1.45 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 GBPUSD Spot Exchange Rate Source: Strategas, Bloomberg 7/2/26 Proprietary Information - Please Do Not ...
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Rare Weight For Consumer Discretionary:
Jul 2, 2026
ETF Research Thursday, July 2, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com RARE WEIGHT FOR CONSUMER ... ETF flows to Consumer Discretionary have flatlined, although we believe this has more to do with lack of enticing exposures than a read on the strength or weakness of the space. Thematic ETFs could be another source of competition, although we'd reiterate that most single theme ETFs come with poor risk- adjusted returns and high volatility. PEJ is the route ...
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Quarterly Review in Charts: 2Q 2026:
Jul 1, 2026 ... 36% 21% 37% 22% 100% 59% 100% 60% Strategas Asset Allocation SMA Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 24% 14% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 22% 13% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 12% 7% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 10% 6% 12% 7% iShares S&P 500 Core ETF (IVV) US MC Value 4% 2% 2% 1% iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (IJJ) US SC Core 2% 1% 1% 1% ...
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Key ETFs for 3Q + Leverage Hits $500 Bn Notional:
Jun 30, 2026 1993 12.2% 7.1% Annual S&P 500 Contribution of 10 Largest Weights During Positive Performance Years Source: Strategas, Bloomberg, 6/29/26 Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, June 30, 2026 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com Knocking on $16 trillion AUM and 5,400 ETFs as 3Q commences, below is what you need to know from the ETF universe: To us, 3Q is about low Tech & low correlation ETFs. ...
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Trump Needs to Be Careful Iran Does Not Take The Money And Run:
Jun 29, 2026 ... To The S&P 500 & Strategas Consumer Stimulus Indicator Strategas OBBBA Consumer Rel S&P 500 Strategas Consumer Stimulus Indicator (Right) 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Indexed to 100 on 1/1/26) Source: FactSet May 19th 6/29/2026 www.strategasrp.com Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 5 WARSH COMMITTEES TO BE FINALIZED BY YEAR-END; GROWING CONSENSUS BALANCE SHEET CAN BE REDUCED $4.0 ...
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Weakness Concentrated in Tech, Dispersion Continues for S&P 500:
Jun 29, 2026 the MAGS ETF was down -5.87%, SMH (semiconductors) fell -7.31%. Interestingly, in spite of the sharp selloff in crude oil, USO (crude oil exposure) down -8.17%, Energy stocks (XLE) managed to close the week positive up +0.84%. ETF ... downside momentum in Mag7 names remains key, MAGS ETF down -12.88% so far in June vs. -2.98% for the S&P 500. ... Todd Sohn published on June 9, which pointed out non-tech ETF candidates for bullish calls spreads. 06/29/26 Strategas ...
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Jun. Market Balance Sheet: Hard to Fade the Current Bull Market; Fed
Tightening Fears May Be Overblown:
Jun 26, 2026 ... If there's one thing investors might want to put on their radar, it's that such strong growth means companies will be facing tough comps next year. Sentiment Our sentiment composite sits in the 61st percentile today. That's rising from suppressed levels but shy of prior extremes. Notably though, there are still pockets of aggressive behavior: levered ETFs are over $200 Bn AUM (a new high) while also averaging over $45 Bn traded per day (another new high). Tech sector flows ...
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