|
|
Three Questions From Recent Travels:
Sep 23, 2026 20 40 60 80 100 High vs. Low Beta ETFs Z-Score Cyclical - Defensive Sector Flows Lev. Long to Inverse $ Vol. Levered Long AUM Lev. Long to Inverse AUM Ratio T-Bill ETF Flows Equity - Bond ETF Flows Equity ETF Flows Percentile ETF Activity Barometer Prepared by Baird Strategas LLC, FINRA member. Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. See Appendix for Important Disclosures. ETF Research Wednesday, September 23, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 ...
|
|
Decisive Mag 7 Breakout, Credit Will Tell Us If / When Fed Goes Too Far:
Sep 22, 2026 DECISIVE BREAKOUT FOR MAG 7 WITH +2 SIGMA ADVANCE Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 2 9/22/2026 Mag 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA Daily % Change with +/- 2 Std. Deviation Bands Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals ✓ ... 15 9/22/2026 MSCI Brazil ETF: EWZ 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals -20% correction out of the way ahead of the upcoming election, and now with the 50- day crossing back above the 200-day... ...
|
|
Shifting Constructive. Calmer Week Ahead?:
Sep 21, 2026 As our colleague Don Rissmiller put it in his post-FOMC note (here): "This does not look like the beginning of an aggressive rate hike cycle." ETF Description Sep 4, 2026 Sep 11, 2026 Sep 18, 2026 SPY S&P 500 0.11% -0.77% -0.09% XLK ... We would prefer to take advantage of low levels of implied volatility for asymmetric bullish positioning at the sector/single-stock level, with Tech/AI in favor. We would point to examples of bullish ETF plays featured in our colleague Todd ...
|
|
Follow The Relative Strength Leaders:
Sep 21, 2026 MAG 7 is acting well as IG Tech spreads contract, and it would be difficult to dismiss MU > $1040 or TSM > $444 or MRVL > $255. Notably, the Taiwan ETF (EWT) has already made new highs There's plenty of Healthcare in this "relative leader" ... MSCI Taiwan ETF: EWT 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals After a -20% correction, Taiwan quick to make new highs. ✓ PEAKED ON GENIUS ACT, BOTTOMS ON CLARITY FAILURE, BREAKS OUT ON A HIKE... ...
|
|
Weather, War & A.I.:
Sep 18, 2026 ... 7% - - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Commodities 25% 3% - - Aberdeen Standard All Commodity ETF (BCI) Agriculture 20% 2% Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA) 100% 12% 100% 10% * Strategas' ... Allocation Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 24% 14% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 22% 13% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 12% 7% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 8% 5% 12% 7% ...
|
|
Video Slides:
Sep 18, 2026 Trends were deteriorating for months ahead of the 2025 trade skirmish. MEANWHILE, THE MAG 7 ON THE GOAL LINE Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 5 9/18/2026 Mag 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA MAGS Relative to S&P 500 Positive ... 55 th percentile Equity ETF Flows S&P Futures Positioning 10-Day Put/Call Ratio VIX Curve I.I. Bull / Bear Ratio Consensus % Bullish AAII Bull/Bear Ratio Policy Uncertainty Median Percentile Strategas Sentiment Dashboard Current Reading vs. ...
|
|
Russia Sanctions & Tariff Bill Likely to Pass Congress This Week, New
Tariffs On Russian Oil Buyers:
Sep 15, 2026 ... This is a good example how both data center and fiscal policy could shift if the Democrats have a wave election at the state levels. 10.8 6.8 6 4 1.6 0.5 0.3 -3.2 -10.5 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 AZ MI IA WI GA NV OH TX NH Democratic Candidate's Lead In Key Gubernatorial Races (RCP Average) 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Dem Sweep Odds (Right, ...
|
|
Rates + Oil + Tech = Disappearing Consumer Exposure:
Sep 15, 2026
ETF Research Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com RATES + OIL + TECH = ... back on our West Coast travels. As for what you should know from the ETF universe: Disappearing Consumer Exposure. ... As for flows, total cyclical sector flows reflect macro unease too, as does the action from BWET (Tanker Shipping ETF). ... Low Beta ETFs Z-Score Cyclical - Defensive Sector Flows Lev. Long to Inverse $ Vol. Levered Long AUM Lev. Long to ...
|
|
Rotational Tape Lives On, Yen Shorts Covering & Euro The Weaker Link:
Sep 15, 2026 ... AUTOS Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 11 9/15/2026 7/21/1906 "Hurled to Death By His Auto" 6/9/1909 "Privileged Sport" *Features 22 actual newspaper clippings of auto accidents August 1905 "Joyously Toying With Death" MEANWHILE, THE MAG 7 ON THE GOAL LINE Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 12 9/15/2026 Mag 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA MAGS Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend Signals Overbought / Oversold $71.16 ✓ Ignore the ...
|
|
FOMC and September Options Expiration:
Sep 14, 2026 Against the backdrop of nervousness around rates, the Fed's rate decision, and the Iran situation, implied volatility remained somewhat calm, with the VIX Index closing the week at 15.84, slightly up from 14.54 the week before, while the VIXEQ Index (volatility at the single-stock level) ended the week lower at 34.46, its lowest close since January 2. ETF Description Aug 28, 2026 Sep 4, 2026 Sep 11, 2026 SPY S&P 500 0.47% 0.11% -0.77% XLK Technology 1.30% 0.86% 0.21% XLY ...
|
|
|