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Elevated Volatility and Flat Skew Remain:
Nov 4, 2025 Nov. 4, 2025 Elevated Volatility and Flat Skew Remain * The VIX remains stubbornly high despite the S&P being up 8 of the last 11 days and the spread between implied vol and realized vol remains wide. Options volume was on the lighter side yesterday and we are seeing ETF skew flattening out a bit, a phenomenon we saw with large cap single name options as we approached earnings and investors flocked to calls. 1-month SMH skew is down to the 11th percentile while SPY and QQQ ...
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Frequent Question: How To Hedge?:
Nov 4, 2025 39 41 43 Cumulative 2025 Equity ETF Flows ($MM) Equity ETF Flows Weekly Sum ($MM) Trading Week Equity ETF Flows Weekly Sum ($MM) Diamond = Cumulative 2025 Flows Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, November 4, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com FREQUENT QUESTION: HOW TO HEDGE? With October in the books, here's what you should know from the ETF universe today: Equity Flows Heating Up. ...
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Divergent Messages on Global Liquidity, Commodities Quietly at 2yr High:
Nov 4, 2025 ... SOYBEANS BID Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 19 11/4/2025 Generic Soybeans Futures 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals ✓ MARKET HAS VOTED LOUDLY HERE... Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 20 11/4/2025 MSCI Argentina ETF: ARGT 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals WITHIN HC, LLY ...
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Video Slides:
Oct 31, 2025 We rarely make sentiment calls in 4Q (seasonality too strong), but it's something to be aware of. Equity ETF Flows S&P ... Sector ETF Flows Rolling 65-Day Sum, $ Bn +2 Standard Deviations -2 Standard Deviations Rising, but some slowdown in pace for cyclical sector flows, particularly as defensives see a pulse. Cyclical Minus Defensive Sector ETF Flows ... Sep-25 Oct-25 Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Since Sept. '24 Rate Cut $MM Tech Financials Industrials Utilities Comm. ...
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Oct. Market Balance Sheet: Investors' Posture Shifts as 4Q Economic Soft
Patch Plays Out:
Oct 31, 2025 ... It's not enough to derail the bull case, but a few items on our radar as we progress through 4Q. Sentiment Equity flows + options remain on the hotter side of the ledger and recent investor survey data has perked up. We'd describe sentiment as in the "red zone" of where we'd start to consider changing to a liability. Notably, the ratio of levered long to inverse ETF AUM is also approaching a new YTD high. This is another reflection of enthusiastic attitudes. LIABILITIES ...
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Sector Focus: REITs:
Oct 30, 2025 In a similar fashion, REIT ETF AUM has been meaningfully surpassed by derivative income, ultrashort duration, and crypto products... we'd consider each of these ... '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 ETF Assets Under Management ($MM) REITs Ultrashort Duration Precious Metals Crypto Derivative Income ALTERNATIVES ARGUABLY TAKING SHARE FROM REITs Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 3 10/30/2025 The proliferation of ETFs across different ...
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Rate Setup Into Fed Meeting Different Than 4Q '24:
Oct 29, 2025 ... Deviation Bands Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals ✓ ✓ Base + breakout for Soybeans yesterday... Part of the China trade message here? WE RESPECT GAPS THROUGH MAJOR LEVELS... ARGENTINA Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 10 10/29/2025 MSCI Argentina ETF: ARGT 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals Major gap through the 200-day post election results last few days... have ...
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Gold Rout Continues... But Not Hitting Broader Mo Trade:
Oct 28, 2025 top in precious metals has been coming together for weeks (e.g., extreme sentiment, volume, ETF flows, etc.), and the reversal has started to take shape. ... Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 5 10/28/2025 AND A NEW ETF FILING... 3X GDX! ✓ ✓ ✓ DOES GOLD ... PRICE + RELATIVE HIGHS Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 9 10/28/2025 Mag 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA ...
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November ETF Playbook:
Oct 28, 2025 See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, October 28, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com NOVEMBER ETF PLAYBOOK Here's how we'd set the stage for November from the ETF universe: A.I. Exposure. Investors continue to lean into concentration with new % weight highs for the 5 and 10 largest S&P 500 names as well as the Tech sector and Semiconductor industry. TSM is approaching 12% of E.M. exposure and 17% of Ex. ...
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Federal Employee Union Calls For Reopening The Government To Break The
Stalemate:
Oct 27, 2025 Only 25% Of Gov't Was Shutdown During 2018-2019 Shutdown 10/27/2025 www.strategasrp.com Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 2 TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS WARNING THAT FOOD STAMP FUNDING WILL RUN OUT ON NOVEMBER 1ST 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Mar-22 Jan-23 Nov-23 Sep-24 Jul-25 Consumer Staples ETF rel SPY & SNAP Food Stamps Spending Consumer Staples ETF rel SPY (Left) SNAP Spending (20-Day Sum, $BN, Right) -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% ...
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