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Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, & Thank You... See You In '26:
Dec 23, 2025 Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 2 12/23/2025 So to close out 2025, thank you for giving us a forum to express our views each morning and always welcoming us into your office. To publish day in and day out, you need a great team - our ETF and flows guru Todd Sohn and Adair Rufty both do a remarkable job of keeping our product moving forward on a day-to-day basis. Over the coming days and weeks, we look forward to ...
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Believing in a Santa Claus Rally:
Dec 22, 2025 On the upside, we would view 7,000 as a potential ceiling for the S&P 500, given the sizable call-option open interest at that level (78k). 12/22/25 Strategas Securities - Equity Derivatives Strategy PROPRIETARY INFORMATION - PLEASE DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE 2 SPX last close: 6834.50 We would also keep an eye on AVGO here, looking for a potential bounce now that the selling pressure tied to index rebalancing has passed. The stock was the worst performer in the semiconductor ETF SMH ...
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Global Rates Breaking Out, Accompanied w/ Pro-Cyclical Message (So Far):
Dec 22, 2025 ... TRANSPORTS > UTES Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 7 12/22/2025 Transports Relative to Utilities 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals ✓ Trend change for the Transports vs. Utes pair. U.S. AERO & DEFENSE RESUMING TREND Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 8 12/22/2025 U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: ITA 50 & 200-Day MA ITA ...
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Video Slides:
Dec 19, 2025 ... Equity ETF Flows S&P Futures Positioning 10-Day Put/Call Ratio VIX Curve I.I. Bull / Bear Ratio Consensus % Bullish AAII Bull/Bear Ratio Policy ... 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 Trading Days Cumulative Daily Equity ETF Flows $MM 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 STRUCTURAL OR ... $50,000 $60,000 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 Russell 2000 ETF Rolling 1-Year % Change Rolling 1-Year ETF Flows ($MM) Small-Cap ETFs Rolling 1-Year Flows vs. ...
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Sector Focus: Tech:
Dec 18, 2025 Tech's S&P 500 influence remains near multi-decade highs and overexposure via factor or thematic ETFs is pervasive. It's not lost on us that there is an abundance of new ETFs focusing on the A.I. & Power ... their bottom decile), and sector ETF flows - a helpful measure of investor sentiment - offer a similar idea in terms of overabundance. ... Aug-24 Nov-24 Feb-25 May-25 Aug-25 Nov-25 Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Since ChatGPT Public Release $MM Tech Healthcare ...
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Longer-Term Scaffolding for Asset Allocation Appears to be Changing:
Dec 16, 2025 ... 6% - - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Commodities 40% 4% - - Aberdeen Standard All Commodity ETF (BCI) 100% 10% - - Strategas Recommended ALTERNATIVE Allocation (Dec'25) Strategas ... Allocation SMA Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 26% 15% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 20% 12% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 14% 8% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 10% 6% 12% 7% ...
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5 Quick Observations As Leadership Continues To Evolve:
Dec 16, 2025 The Travel stocks remain particularly bid within Discretionary and even TSLA broke out yesterday. 2. We showed the RSP vs. QQQ pair yesterday (we believe a change is underway), and this morning highlight the turn for the PICK vs. QQQ pair (PICK is the Global Mining ETF: BHP, RIO, FCX, etc). Speaking of FCX, it has turned positive in our relative model over recent days. 3. After consolidating for the last few weeks, Healthcare has responded well to 50-day moving average ...
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Charts That Defined The Year In ETFs:
Dec 16, 2025 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 U.S. ETF Industry AUM $ Trillion Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, December 16, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com CHARTS THAT DEFINED THE YEAR IN ETFs We've written extensively on the variations in flows, product launches, and (most) other items ETF universe related. ...
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A Hazy Strategy: Trump Takes A Page From Biden To Energize Young Voters:
Dec 15, 2025 ... The Basket generally underperforms the cannabis ETFs off positive cannabis news and outperforms when there is negative ... Real-Time Cannabis Basket Relative to the S&P 500 & MJ ETF (100 = 12/31/2021) Strategas' Cannabis Basket Rel S&P 500 Strategas Cannabis Basket Rel ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF HHS Recommends DEA Reschedule Cannabis DEA Proposes Rule ... Confirmed To DEA Rescheduling Headlines Strategas' Cannabis Basket has easily outperformed cannabis ETFs over the years. ...
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Volatility to Remain Muted into Year End:
Dec 15, 2025 ... last close: 253.85 12/15/25 Strategas Securities - Equity Derivatives Strategy PROPRIETARY INFORMATION - PLEASE DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE 4 We continue to prefer avoiding SPX volatility for upside participation, focusing instead on concentrated ETFs and single stocks where we expect heavy dispersion into year-end. Of our three ETF picks last week, SMH lagged while KRE and XRT delivered. Looking at January 25-delta calls, we would look to adjust strikes on all three at this point. ...
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