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Crypto Flew Too Close To The Sun:
Nov 18, 2025
ETF Research Tuesday, November 18, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com CRYPTO FLEW TOO CLOSE TO THE SUN There's a few cross currents in our ETF work today - aggressive flows, leverage wipeouts, as well as a Crypto flush. On that score, diversification remains unloved to us. Takeaways and key charts are as follows: 1) Equity flows remain hot, leverage wipeouts, and hedges are still timely. Trailing 65-day equity ETF flows are in ...
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Price Shapes Narrative, Not Oversold (Yet), Support 6350-6400:
Nov 18, 2025 ... Getting closer for Tech. IWM NEARING SUPPORT & IN BALLPARK OF AN OVERSOLD CONDITION Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 7 11/18/2025 R2000 ETF: IWM 50 & 200-Day MA & 65-Day Low Line Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals 224 3m low line at 224 for the IWM with the 200-day nearby at 220... if uptrend is to remain valid, this should be support. CYCLICALS vs. DEFENSIVES APPROACHING OVERSOLD & NEARING ...
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Allocators' Note: The "Rules" of the Past Likely Less Reliable for
Portfolios of the Future:
Nov 17, 2025 ... 6% - - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Commodities 40% 4% - - Aberdeen Standard All Commodity ETF (BCI) 100% 10% - - Strategas Recommended ALTERNATIVE Allocation (Nov'25) Strategas ... Allocation SMA Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 26% 15% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 20% 12% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 14% 8% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 10% 6% 12% 7% ...
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Reality Check For A.I. Spending & Private Credit:
Nov 17, 2025 ... single-stock ETFs, and a basket of companies tied to those products is already down -16%. Notably, many of these names overlap with the AI trade with Nvidia representing the second largest share of leveraged ETF assets under ... DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES LEVERAGE WITHIN EQUITIES THROUGH ETFs THIS CYCLE 20% 17% 16% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% ... as of 11/17/25 VanEck Business Development Company Income ETF Holdings LTM Div Yield YTD Price Return 11/17/25 Strategas ...
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Kick Save Off Support, But With More Defensive Leadership Tone:
Nov 17, 2025 ... 50 & 200-Day MA C. Staples Relative to S&P 500 - Equal Weight Positive / Negative Trend Signals There's a more defensive tone to the tape, but it hasn't included any meaningful price or relative turn for the Staples yet. -$15,000 -$10,000 -$5,000 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Since Sept. '24 Rate Cut $MM Tech Financials Industrials Utilities Comm. ...
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Video Slides:
Nov 14, 2025 ... Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Since Sept. '24 Rate Cut $MM Tech Financials Industrials Utilities Comm. ... BIG FLOWS HERE... 35 11/14/2025 Bloomberg AI Index 200-Day Average Cumulative Flows to A.I. + Power Themed ETFs Since ChatGPT Launch (11/30/22) $ Bn This is a small amount in the big world of ETFs but is a decent reflection of the thirst for A.I. + Power related exposures. Strategas Technical & Macro Research Equity ETF Flows S&P Futures ...
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Call Options Activity is Back in GLD:
Nov 13, 2025 Nov. 13, 2025 Call Options Activity is Back in GLD After a two-week correction in the precious metal, accompanied by a notable drop in volatility, gold appears to have regained upward momentum, with gold volatility also rebounding in line with its typical spot-up/vol-up regime. As volatility declined, opportunistic call buyers who had briefly stepped away returned to GLD. Yesterday marked the third-highest call volume ever in the gold ETF, with 1.27 million calls traded. ...
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Consumer Stocks Poised To Benefit From The Coming Tax Refund Tsunami:
Nov 13, 2025 ... BLBD Blue Bird Corporation 31.37% 33.76% OSK Oshkosh Corp 30.98% 35.32% GVA Granite Construction Incorporated 16.86% 24.21% SP50 S&P 500 16.41% 20.97% AAPL Apple Inc. 9.92% 38.64% MUB iShares National Muni Bond ETF 0.93% 3.13% HYD VanEck High Yield Muni ETF -1.79% 1.90% AWR American States Water Company -2.39% -5.46% AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. -2.50% 0.41% AXON Axon Enterprise Inc -3.73% -16.42% MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. -15.20% -3.58% TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. ...
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Healthcare & Energy Sparking... & Trafficking Among the Obscure for Macro
Clues:
Nov 12, 2025 As Todd Sohn has noted in our weekly ETF & Flow research, the persistent outflows from Energy (and Healthcare for that matter) suggest the bar of ... Energy Sector ETF: RSPG RSPG Relative RSP Cumulative Energy Sector ETF Flows ($MM) During Inflation Spike vs. Post-Inflation Spike CPI Rises from 0.1% to 9.1% Energy Inflows Surge CPI Peaks Cyclicality Takes Hold, Market Moves on From Energy Strategas Technical & Macro Research From Todd Sohn's ETF & Flow work... it's ...
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Flows + Leverage Heating Up:
Nov 11, 2025 Annual S&P 500 Contribution of 10 Largest Weights During Positive Performance Years Source: Strategas, Bloomberg, 10/31/25 Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, November 11, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com FLOWS + LEVERAGE HEATING UP Government shutdown or no shutdown, the ETF universe never sleeps - here's 3 items you should be aware of this week: 1) Equity flows are heating up. ...
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