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Left Tail Narrowing, Right Tail Fattening:
Nov 9, 2026 The 10Yr yield dropped to 4.86% from 4.93%. Volatility jumped: the VIX index finished at 25.64 from 19.42, and the VXN Index at 34.02 from 28.50. ETF Description Oct 23, 2026 Oct 30, 2026 Nov 6, 2026 SPY S&P 500 -0.43% -0.56% -2.69% XLK ... Thursday was also a day of intense, forced liquidation across both systematic and discretionary spaces, with many high-profile hedge funds reported to have liquidated positions. Across the leveraged ETF space, followed closely by our ...
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Post-Election Policy Chartbook:
Nov 9, 2026 ... & SRVR Datacenter ETF rel S&P 500 Avg Dem Governor Lead (Left) SRVR rel S&P 500 (Right, Inverted) 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 115 120 125 130 135 140 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 Oct-26 Nov-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 & Odds of ... Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Oct-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Source: Factset Local Referendums Are A Good ... Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 Oct-26 Nov-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Source: Factset 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 ...
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Leverage Gets Emotional:
Nov 9, 2026
ETF Research Monday, November 9, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com LEVERAGE GETS EMOTIONAL We ... This plays into today's theme: emotion. ETFs are only one piece of the macro puzzle and the most important items from our corner of the universe are: -Emotion has arrived. Levered funds posted record trading volume last week. Inverse ETF ... We'd pair this off with the anecdotal comment above. -The levered reset continues. Our levered long to inverse ETF ratio ...
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Keeping An Open Mind, Quick Takeaways & Observations From London:
Nov 4, 2026 ... Particularly notable given some disinflationary messages from the market lately. ✓ MEANWHILE, THE RSP WITHIN 2% OF ALL-TIME HIGHS Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 5 11/4/2026 Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF: RSP 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals The Equal vs. Cap-weight S&P tug-of-war is telling in itself... $ would rather rotate within equities than leave the asset class altogether. RSP doesn't have to lead, just ...
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2026 Midterm Election, Policy & Investment Playbook:
Nov 3, 2026 ... Oct-26 XLI Industrials Sector ETF Relative to the S&P 500 & Odds of a Split Congress Odds of a Split XLI rel S&P 500 (Left) 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 Oct-26 XLV Health Care Sector ETF rel S&P 500 & Odds of a Dem Sweep ... DKNG DraftKings TTEK Tetra Tech ILMN Illumina HYD VanEck HY Muni Bond ETF MUB iShares Municipal Bond ETF VWS-DK Vestas Wind KR Kroger WMT Walmart FSTR LB Foster Co WAB Westinghouse Air ...
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Yields < Fed Hike Levels (& Discretionary Likes It), Consolidation Risk For
Healthcare:
Nov 3, 2026 At the same time, small-cap Energy looks more vulnerable compared to its large-cap brethren. We've been vocal bulls on Healthcare for much of the year (and remain of that view over the intermediate-term), but just be mindful that the sector is pretty overbought into the election, and as Todd Sohn has noted in our ETF work, the flows have turned very aggressive over recent weeks. A period of consolidation / correction here wouldn't surprise us. YIELDS NOW BELOW FOMC HIKE ...
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November ETF Charts: Concentration, Inverse Volume, Flows:
Nov 3, 2026 See Appendix for Important Disclosures. ETF Research Tuesday, November 3, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com KEY NOVEMBER ETF CHARTS: CONCENTRATION, INVERSE VOLUME, FLOWS It's an eventful week here at Baird Strategas between our DC team covering the midterm elections impact and our London Macro Conference. ETFs are just one ... The rinse from Tech related areas is synchronized with a rise of inverse ETF trading volume and decline of levered ETF ...
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Nervousness Builds Up into Midterms, Job Numbers and Earnings:
Nov 2, 2026 Notable declines included GOOGL -12.64%, NOW -26.95%, RDDT -29.22%, and INTC -28.57%. Oct '26 ETF Description Oct 16, 2026 Oct 23, 2026 Oct 30, 2026 Return SPY ... VIX Index (red) & VXN Index (blue) intraday price action, Friday, October 30, 2026 Leveraged ETFs saw end-of-day rebalancing-forced selling of more than $35Bn ... straddles pricing in a move of 1.87% in either direction for SPY and 3.27% for QQQ. Both ETFs experienced moves of roughly that magnitude last Friday alone. ...
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No Macro Game-Changing Event Puts The Democrats In Striking Distance To
Sweep The US Midterm Elections:
Nov 2, 2026 ... In fact, the data center ETF, SRVR, has underperformed the S&P 500 as the odds of the Democrats winning in key data center states have increased (TX, ... Lead of Democratic Governors in Data Center States & SRVR Datacenter ETF rel S&P 500 Avg Dem Governor Lead (Left) SRVR rel S&P 500 (Right, ... 155 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 Oct-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Dem Sweep Odds (Right, Inverted) Source: Factset The data ...
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Oct Market Balance Sheet: Market "Balance Sheet" Flashes Yellow:
Oct 30, 2026 ... The market is currently trading at 22x TTM earnings, well above its historical average of 16x since 1950. Given the recent rise in long-term interest rates, this leaves the market vulnerable to a sell-off. We are forecasting S&P operating earnings of $407 in 2027 and a target price of 8,140 for the Index (assuming a 20x multiple). Sentiment While we mark Sentiment as a Liability, our inputs are shifting. Broad Equity ETF flows have slowed and sector positioning skews ...
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