|
|
Video Slides:
Sep 25, 2026 ... 9 9/25/2026 Excessive Optimism Excessive Pessimism 56 th percentile DECISIVE BREAKOUT FOR MAG 7... 4Q MELT-UP? Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 10 9/25/2026 Mag 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA Daily % Change with +/- 2 Std. ... TAIWAN QUICK TO NEW PRICE & RELATIVE HIGHS Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 40 9/25/2026 MSCI Taiwan ETF: EWT 50 & 200-Day MA Taiwan: EWT Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend Signals MEANWHILE, CHINA WEAK BOTH ...
|
|
Midterm Election Update: 40 Days to Go:
Sep 24, 2026 ... 135 140 145 150 155 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Dem Sweep Odds (Right, Inverted) Source: Factset 9/24/26 Proprietary ... DKNG DraftKings State Budget MUB iShares Municipal Bond ETF If Democrats succeed in punting Medicaid changes and providing more SNAP funds, state budgets will be a beneficiary as they won't have to make up for a shortfall in funding. AGO Assured Guaranty HYD VanEck HY Muni Bond ETF ...
|
|
Three Questions From Recent Travels:
Sep 23, 2026 20 40 60 80 100 High vs. Low Beta ETFs Z-Score Cyclical - Defensive Sector Flows Lev. Long to Inverse $ Vol. Levered Long AUM Lev. Long to Inverse AUM Ratio T-Bill ETF Flows Equity - Bond ETF Flows Equity ETF Flows Percentile ETF Activity Barometer Prepared by Baird Strategas LLC, FINRA member. Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. See Appendix for Important Disclosures. ETF Research Wednesday, September 23, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 ...
|
|
Decisive Mag 7 Breakout, Credit Will Tell Us If / When Fed Goes Too Far:
Sep 22, 2026 DECISIVE BREAKOUT FOR MAG 7 WITH +2 SIGMA ADVANCE Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 2 9/22/2026 Mag 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA Daily % Change with +/- 2 Std. Deviation Bands Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals ✓ ... 15 9/22/2026 MSCI Brazil ETF: EWZ 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals -20% correction out of the way ahead of the upcoming election, and now with the 50- day crossing back above the 200-day... ...
|
|
Shifting Constructive. Calmer Week Ahead?:
Sep 21, 2026 As our colleague Don Rissmiller put it in his post-FOMC note (here): "This does not look like the beginning of an aggressive rate hike cycle." ETF Description Sep 4, 2026 Sep 11, 2026 Sep 18, 2026 SPY S&P 500 0.11% -0.77% -0.09% XLK ... We would prefer to take advantage of low levels of implied volatility for asymmetric bullish positioning at the sector/single-stock level, with Tech/AI in favor. We would point to examples of bullish ETF plays featured in our colleague Todd ...
|
|
Follow The Relative Strength Leaders:
Sep 21, 2026 MAG 7 is acting well as IG Tech spreads contract, and it would be difficult to dismiss MU > $1040 or TSM > $444 or MRVL > $255. Notably, the Taiwan ETF (EWT) has already made new highs There's plenty of Healthcare in this "relative leader" ... MSCI Taiwan ETF: EWT 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals After a -20% correction, Taiwan quick to make new highs. ✓ PEAKED ON GENIUS ACT, BOTTOMS ON CLARITY FAILURE, BREAKS OUT ON A HIKE... ...
|
|
Weather, War & A.I.:
Sep 18, 2026 ... 7% - - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Commodities 25% 3% - - Aberdeen Standard All Commodity ETF (BCI) Agriculture 20% 2% Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA) 100% 12% 100% 10% * Strategas' ... Allocation Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 24% 14% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 22% 13% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 12% 7% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 8% 5% 12% 7% ...
|
|
Video Slides:
Sep 18, 2026 Trends were deteriorating for months ahead of the 2025 trade skirmish. MEANWHILE, THE MAG 7 ON THE GOAL LINE Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 5 9/18/2026 Mag 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA MAGS Relative to S&P 500 Positive ... 55 th percentile Equity ETF Flows S&P Futures Positioning 10-Day Put/Call Ratio VIX Curve I.I. Bull / Bear Ratio Consensus % Bullish AAII Bull/Bear Ratio Policy Uncertainty Median Percentile Strategas Sentiment Dashboard Current Reading vs. ...
|
|
Russia Sanctions & Tariff Bill Likely to Pass Congress This Week, New
Tariffs On Russian Oil Buyers:
Sep 15, 2026 ... This is a good example how both data center and fiscal policy could shift if the Democrats have a wave election at the state levels. 10.8 6.8 6 4 1.6 0.5 0.3 -3.2 -10.5 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 AZ MI IA WI GA NV OH TX NH Democratic Candidate's Lead In Key Gubernatorial Races (RCP Average) 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Dem Sweep Odds (Right, ...
|
|
Rates + Oil + Tech = Disappearing Consumer Exposure:
Sep 15, 2026
ETF Research Tuesday, September 15, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com RATES + OIL + TECH = ... back on our West Coast travels. As for what you should know from the ETF universe: Disappearing Consumer Exposure. ... As for flows, total cyclical sector flows reflect macro unease too, as does the action from BWET (Tanker Shipping ETF). ... Low Beta ETFs Z-Score Cyclical - Defensive Sector Flows Lev. Long to Inverse $ Vol. Levered Long AUM Lev. Long to ...
|
|
|