Since the recent equity market low in November, we've seen broad improvement across fixed income markets, with bond spreads compressing across the board. One specific area we've seen compression is with "AI bonds", or bonds of companies in AI ETFs, with spreads for these largely below levels from recent equity market lows. While optimistic, we're always on the lookout for threats, and one that now appears to be ebbing is that of a hiccup in funding markets. Following the end ...

After that DecQ, there is large open interest at 7,000 which could act as a bit of a magnet as we approach year end. New trade idea in conjunction with our technical team IBIT Feb 58-63 call spread for $0.95 (1.8% of spot 4.25-1 payout) * Bitcoin is -30% off the October highs while access is expanding (new access to spot crypto ETFs). * Not that we believe the entire money market space will shift out of their funds, but another cut this week brings cash-like yields closer to ...

$895,701 6.7% Commodities $314,583 2.4% Option Income $163,241 1.2% Leverage $158,733 1.2% Crypto $141,291 1.1% ETF Category Size Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, December 9, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com CRYPTO AND MONEY MARKETS Today we offer what we believe are two key psychological barometers for ETF investors: Crypto + Money Market allocations. 1) Crypto access expanding. ...

... ORCL 5Y CDS Spread AVGO is not the only semiconductor name to have rallied since Nov 21. Many semiconductor companies have posted solid gains, with the semiconductor ETF (SMH) up +12% over the period. This is particularly notable given that NVDA, the largest weight in the ETF at 16.9%, has ... Instead, we would target concentrated ETFs with strong price action such as SMH, XRT, and KRE, or select single stocks (see last week's list of heavily shorted names with bottom-quartile ...

Strategas Technical & Macro Research 3 12/5/2025 Russell 2000 ETF: IWM Monthly The Russell 2000 was down -7% at one ... '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 Small-Cap ETF Flows Rolling 1-Year Sum, $MM -$20,000 -$10,000 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 Small-Cap ETF Flows Rolling 65-Day Sum, $MM SOME CHASE FOR ... S&P 500 Cyclicals Relative Defensives Cyclical Sector ETF Flows Rolling 65-Day Sum, $ Bn +2 Standard Deviations -2 ...

Shorter Duration Futures OI Tsy Net Issuance & RRF Operations MOVE Index & Bond ETF Volatility Options on Tsy Futures Vol Tsy Auction Bid-to-Cover Data Note/Bond Allotment ... NEUTRAL 12/4/25 Please see the Appendix for important disclosures. BOND MARKET VOLATILITY: MOVE INDEX & BOND ETF ATM IMPLIED VOLATILITY Bond volatility remains near multi-year lows, while volatility metrics for major fixed income ETFs show little stress. We keep this long, but note global bond risks ...

... REGIONALS ALSO FIRMING AS CURVE RE-STEEPENS Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 6 12/4/2025 Regional Banking ETF: KRE 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Roughly a 2-month high yesterday for the KRE. Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals ✓ INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 20-DAY HIGHS RE-EXPANDING Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 7 12/4/2025 S&P Industrials Sector 50 & ...

... Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Since Sept. '24 Rate Cut $MM Tech Financials Industrials Utilities Comm. Discretionary Real Estate Staples Materials Energy Healthcare OVERALL MATERIAL SECTOR ETF FLOWS MOSTLY MUTED Strategas Technical & Macro ... We'd put tabs on the chart below, large range over the last two years. Ticker Name AUM ($MM) COPX Global X Copper Miners ETF $3,553 PICK iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF $892 MXI iShares Global ...

Dec. 3, 2025 Strategas Securities, LLC Ryan Grabinski (646) 292-7910 rgrabinski@strategasrp.com Jon Byrne (212) 897-6386 jbyrne@strategasrp.com Crypto & Stock Decline Tied To Levered ETFs Halted For Now With retail investors playing a larger role in market dynamics, the recent stabilization in cryptocurrencies, likely influenced by Vanguard ending its ban on bitcoin ETFs, along with a rebound in stocks tied to leveraged ETFs, may be signaling a renewed appetite for risk. It's ...

1993 12.2% 7.1% Annual S&P 500 Contribution of 10 Largest Weights During Positive Performance Years Source: Strategas, Bloomberg, 11/30/25 Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, December 2, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com DECEMBER ETF CHARTBOOK: DERIVATIVES, FLOWS, & THEMATIC REVIVAL Below is how we'd set the stage from the ETF universe for December: 1) Growth of derivatives usage. ...