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Key ETFs for 3Q + Leverage Hits $500 Bn Notional:
Jun 30, 2026 1993 12.2% 7.1% Annual S&P 500 Contribution of 10 Largest Weights During Positive Performance Years Source: Strategas, Bloomberg, 6/29/26 Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Tuesday, June 30, 2026 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com Knocking on $16 trillion AUM and 5,400 ETFs as 3Q commences, below is what you need to know from the ETF universe: To us, 3Q is about low Tech & low correlation ETFs. ...
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Trump Needs to Be Careful Iran Does Not Take The Money And Run:
Jun 29, 2026 ... To The S&P 500 & Strategas Consumer Stimulus Indicator Strategas OBBBA Consumer Rel S&P 500 Strategas Consumer Stimulus Indicator (Right) 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Indexed to 100 on 1/1/26) Source: FactSet May 19th 6/29/2026 www.strategasrp.com Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 5 WARSH COMMITTEES TO BE FINALIZED BY YEAR-END; GROWING CONSENSUS BALANCE SHEET CAN BE REDUCED $4.0 ...
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Weakness Concentrated in Tech, Dispersion Continues for S&P 500:
Jun 29, 2026 the MAGS ETF was down -5.87%, SMH (semiconductors) fell -7.31%. Interestingly, in spite of the sharp selloff in crude oil, USO (crude oil exposure) down -8.17%, Energy stocks (XLE) managed to close the week positive up +0.84%. ETF ... downside momentum in Mag7 names remains key, MAGS ETF down -12.88% so far in June vs. -2.98% for the S&P 500. ... Todd Sohn published on June 9, which pointed out non-tech ETF candidates for bullish calls spreads. 06/29/26 Strategas ...
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Jun. Market Balance Sheet: Hard to Fade the Current Bull Market; Fed
Tightening Fears May Be Overblown:
Jun 26, 2026 ... If there's one thing investors might want to put on their radar, it's that such strong growth means companies will be facing tough comps next year. Sentiment Our sentiment composite sits in the 61st percentile today. That's rising from suppressed levels but shy of prior extremes. Notably though, there are still pockets of aggressive behavior: levered ETFs are over $200 Bn AUM (a new high) while also averaging over $45 Bn traded per day (another new high). Tech sector flows ...
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Top House Democrat Proposes Data Center Moratorium:
Jun 26, 2026 Daniel Clifton (202) 290-8262 dclifton@strategasrp.com Jeannette Lowe (202) 243-7583 jlowe@strategasrp.com Courtney Gelman (202) 243-7584 cgelman@strategasrp.com Christopher McGrath (202) 223-7646 cmcgrath@strategasrp.com Policy Outlook Fri. Jun. 26, 2026 TOP HOUSE DEMOCRAT PROPOSES DATA CENTER MORATORIUM 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Jan '25 Mar '25 May '25 Jul '25 Sep '25 Nov '25 Jan '26 Mar '26 May '26 Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF Rel S&P 500 We have ...
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Video Slides:
Jun 26, 2026 ... FRESH RELATIVE BREAKDOWN FOR MAG 7 THIS WEEK Strategas Technical & Macro Research 9 6/26/2026 MAG 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA MAGS Relative to S&P 500 Positive ... NEW HIGH FOR BANKS THIS WEEK, INCLUDING REGIONALS Strategas Technical & Macro Research 14 6/26/2026 KBW Bank Index 50 & 200-Day MA Regional Bank ETF: KRE 50 & ... $7,000 $9,000 $11,000 $13,000 $15,000 Trailing 65-Day Flows YTD Flows Sector ETF Flows: Trailing 65-Days vs. 1-Year $MM THE BAR IS LOW FOR ANYTHING NON-TECH ...
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Options: Post Event Volatility Contraction:
Jun 25, 2026 ... We like using shorter duration call spreads to play sectors that have been spot up vol up such as semiconductors. We like downside structures in USO (we know it's becoming harder) to play a break in crude, but prefer options to shorting the outright physical or ETFs. We like hedging portfolios at the S&P and Nasdaq levels. **We have an Bloomberg IB distribution for tactical ideas and options color we are fairly active with on a daily basis for more active options ...
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Small Is Broad, KRE Breaking Out, A Pulse From Housing, & An Eye on
Sentiment This Summer:
Jun 25, 2026 ... S&P High Date (6/2/26) 8/11 SECTORS HAVE MORE STOCKS > THEIR 50-DAY MA TODAY vs. 6/2 PEAK Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 4 6/25/2026 Tech, Comm Svc. & Energy are the lone sectors with less stocks > their 50-day MA today than at the 6/2 market peak. Participation is broadening. KRE BREAKING OUT Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 5 6/25/2026 Regional Bank ETF: KRE ...
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Every Fed Chair Faces An Equity Market Draw Down In Their First Year:
Jun 24, 2026 Yesterday's Semi Sell-Off Didn't Fase Single Stocks With Leverage Our basket of companies with associated single-stock leveraged ETFs suggests yesterday's decline was not driven by a broad-based deleveraging event. The growth of leveraged ETF derivatives and options activity has amplified upside moves, while only intermittently impacting markets on the downside. The self-reinforcing nature of this leverage where rising prices require additional purchases of the underlying ...
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Dollar Bulls Still Hard To Find, Mag 7 Breakdown, & Banks & Biotech In Gear:
Jun 23, 2026 ... & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 10 6/23/2026 MAG 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA MAGS Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend Signals Overbought / Oversold ✓ MAG 7 remains very weak relative. ... SPEAKING OF HEALTHCARE, THE XBI CONTINUES TO ACT GREAT Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 17 6/23/2026 Biotech ETF: XBI 50 & 200-Day MA XBI Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend ...
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