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Fed Cutting With Banks Strong Is Rare; Lower Rates Not Counter-Cyclical;
Commodity FX Forming:
Sep 15, 2025 ... EVEN WITH RECENT STRENGTH, BAR REMAINS LOW FOR SMALL-CAPS Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 6 9/15/2025 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: IWM Rolling 65-Day Small-Cap ETF Flows, $ Bn Rolling 1-Year Small-Cap ETF Flows, $ Bn IWM very close to making fresh cycle ... Strategas Technical & Macro Research -$15,000 -$10,000 -$5,000 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 Japan ETF Flows Rolling 6-Month Sum, $MM ...
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Melt-Up Mode? Bull Market Thesis Intact But Cracks Cause Concern Ahead of
Stimulus Wave:
Sep 12, 2025 ... 60% 36% 63% 38% International 40% 24% 37% 22% 100% 60% 100% 60% Strategas Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 26% 16% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 20% 12% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 14% 8% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 10% 6% 12% 7% iShares S&P 500 Core ETF (IVV) US MC Value 3% 2% 2% 1% iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (IJJ) US SC Core 2% 1% 1% 1% ...
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Video Slides:
Sep 12, 2025 ... Attitudes follow price in this business, and after a 35% rally, bullish sentiment is becoming more emboldened. ✓ Equity ETF Flows S&P Futures Positioning 10-Day ... FLOWS TURNING AGGRESSIVE AGAIN 23 9/12/2025 SPDR Gold ETF: GLD 50 & 200-Day Average Gold ETF Flows: Rolling 65-Day Sum, $ Bn +2 Standard Deviations -2 Standard Deviations Gold breaking out from a multi-month pause, inflows now following suit. Cumulative Gold ETF Flows: Last 15-Years, $ Bn ✓ ✓ Strategas Technical ...
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A Blemish, A New Puzzle Piece, & A Jolt From Power Stocks:
Sep 11, 2025 ... IMPROVING Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 12 9/11/2025 APA Corp: APA 50 & 200-Day MA Daily % Change with +/- 2 Std. Deviation Bands ✓ Noted improvement here. LITHIUM HAS ALSO TURNED... Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 13 9/11/2025 Global Lithium ETF: LIT 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold ✓ A turn also underway here... TRANSPORTS STILL POOR RELATIVE... ...
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Tech Still Firm, China & Korea Breaking Out:
Sep 10, 2025 ... Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 4 9/10/2025 Micron Technology: MU 50 & 200-Day MA MU Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend Signals ✓ KWEB HAS BROKEN OUT Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 5 9/10/2025 China Internet ETF: KWEB 50 & 200-Day MA KWEB Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend Signals ✓ ✓ 52-week high for KWEB... more momentum from Chinese Tech / Communication names. BABA GAPPING... ...
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A Short QQQ Story:
Sep 9, 2025 Ticker AUM ($MM) Fee (bps) 1-Yr Flow Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO $742,037 3 $140,454 iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV $665,572 3 $61,074 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY $653,311 9 $5,173 Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI $530,486 3 $32,167 Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ $363,679 20 $16,553 Vanguard Growth ETF VUG $188,000 4 $17,165 Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF VEA $173,601 3 $12,848 iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF IEFA $150,726 7 $11,955 Vanguard Value ETF VTV $145,127 4 $10,857 Vanguard ...
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Payrolls Not Hitting Discretionary, Japan & China Remain Strong:
Sep 9, 2025 ... BETTING KWEB BREAKS OUT Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 11 9/9/2025 China Internet ETF: KWEB 50 & 200-Day MA KWEB Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend Signals ✓ Have to imagine KWEB breaks out sooner than later... Tencent continues to lead, with BABA not far behind. HERE'S BABA... Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 12 9/9/2025 Alibaba: BABA 50 & 200-Day ...
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Bonds Confirming What Homebuilders Knew:
Sep 8, 2025 ... Strategas Technical & Macro Research Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute 10 9/8/2025 China 30-Year Yield 50 & 200-Day MA Overbought / Oversold Positive ↑ / Negative ↓ Trend Signals First positive trend change for Chinese rates in nearly 3 years. Equity ETF Flows S&P Futures Positioning 10-Day Put/Call Ratio VIX Curve I.I. Bull / Bear Ratio Consensus % Bullish AAII Bull/Bear Ratio Policy Uncertainty Median Percentile Strategas Sentiment Dashboard Current ...
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Treasury Market Balance Sheet:
Sep 5, 2025 Tsy Attractiveness & Global Positioning Options on Tsy Futures OI J.P. Morgan Client Positioning MOVE Index & Bond ETF Volatility Tsy Auction Tail/Through Data Commercial Bank Deposits & FHLB Lending 4.23% 2 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% -12 ... We move this to short. SHORT 9/5/25 Please see the Appendix for important disclosures. BOND MARKET VOLATILITY: MOVE INDEX & BOND ETF ATM IMPLIED VOLATILITY Yield volatility is elevated, but remains in a downtrend. In order to move this to ...
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Thinking About Year 4 & Active ETFs:
Sep 4, 2025 Quarterly Flows ($MM) AUM ($MM) Actively Managed ETFs AUM ($MM) Flows ($MM) Strategas ETF Research See Appendix for Important Disclosures ETF Research Thursday, September 4, 2025 Strategas ETF Research Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@strategasrp.com THINKING ABOUT YEAR 4 & ACTIVE ETFs Jason Trennert & Ryan Grabinski have noted the big year on the horizon for the United States, with the World Cup and the 250 th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. ...
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