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Tighter Fiscal/Monetary Policy For 2027; Data Center Outlook Key To
Overcoming Policy Headwinds:
Oct 21, 2026 ... The data center ETFs have been underperforming the S&P 500 since Virginia and Texas both began talking about more regulation of data centers in late June. The data center ETF, SRVR, relative to the S&P 500 has moved inversely with Democratic governor candidate polling. As the Dems leads in data center state governor races increase, the data center ETF has ... Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Oct-26 DTCR Data Center ETF rel S&P 500 Source: Factset The tech industry lobbied to ...
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Brazil Update: Election Largely Priced In, Balance Sheet Next:
Oct 21, 2026 ... Supreme Court justices, so its composition will shape policy beyond legislation. Note: Congress composition changes February 2027. 10/21/26 Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 4 BRAZIL ETF FLOWS RE-SURGING SINCE BOLSONARO ODDS ROSE. EARNINGS HAVE DRIVEN MUCH OF THIS YEAR'S RETURNS, COMMODITY PRICES HELPED. Note: Data through 10/20/26. Stacked bars do not sum to price appreciation due to excluded dividends, multiplicative compounding, and index rebalancing. ...
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Risks Rising Around the World:
Oct 20, 2026 ... Still, despite the fears, spreads on an index we made of bonds from companies in major AI ETFs are well below where they hit during the Liberation Day selloff. The recent move is certainly an escalation of fears, and the next key level is April 2025. Getting above those highs would signal to us that the market has changed how it views the AI trade structurally. We're roughly 20 bps from that level, and a change could happen rapidly, so we're staying tuned for signs of further ...
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The Flows & Leverage Backdrop Are Changing:
Oct 20, 2026
ETF Flows Percentile Prepared by Baird Strategas LLC, FINRA member. Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. See Appendix for Important Disclosures. ETF Research Tuesday, October 20, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com THE FLOWS & LEVERAGE BACKDROP ARE CHANGING Below is what you need to know from the ETF universe this ... The spread between Equity and Fixed Income ETF flows are in their bottom decile as demand for bond exposures rise. ...
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From Greed to Fear:
Oct 19, 2026 Bonds found a bid, with the 10-year yield finishing at 5.07%, down from 5.24% the prior week. The VIX jumped to 19.99, after reaching a high of 22, from 14.84. ETF Description Oct 2, 2026 Oct 9, 2026 Oct 16, 2026 SPY S&P 500 -0.22% 1.16% ... The S&P 500 index saw very high option volumes. Notably put volume was the 2 nd largest ever behind the record of 6/5. In the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) options volume were also extreme. QQQ also experienced its second largest put volume behind ...
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Leadership Transitioning:
Oct 19, 2026 Neither are leadership, but a surge in new highs can often be an early message that some relative strength is on the come... we'll see. The more comforting messaging would be lower bond yields recatalyze the more cyclical pockets of the market and credit eases. As Todd Sohn has noted in our ETF work, the flow backdrop has reset and the bar is lower than it has been in some time for groups like Industrials, Financials, etc. - can they respond? We're open to that, but that ...
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Positioned for Continued Choppiness in Equity and Bond Markets:
Oct 16, 2026 ... 7% - - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) Commodities 25% 3% - - Aberdeen Standard All Commodity ETF (BCI) Agriculture 20% 2% Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA) 100% 12% 100% 10% * Strategas' ... Allocation Portfolio Exposures Dev AC Core 24% 14% 26% 16% iShares MSCI EAFE Core ETF (IEFA) US LC Growth 24% 14% 27% 16% iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) US LC Value 22% 13% 19% 11% iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) EM AC Core 12% 7% 11% 7% iShares MSCI EM Core ETF (IEMG) US LC Core 8% 5% 12% 7% ...
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Video Slides:
Oct 16, 2026 KOSPI (2026) KOSPI CONTINUES TO TRACK THE NASDAQ 2000 ANALOG Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 4 10/16/2026 Nasdaq (2000) KOSPI (2026) KOSPI today and Nasdaq in 2000 continues to track nearly tick-for-tick. HYPERSCALERS CONTINUE TO ACT WELL... 6M RELATIVE HIGHS Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 5 10/16/2026 MAG 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA MAGS Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend Signals & 6-Month High Line ✓ KOSPI Peaked ...
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Small-Cap ETFs: What Now?:
Oct 15, 2026 Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. See Appendix for Important Disclosures. ETF Research Thursday, October 15, 2026 Todd Sohn, CMT (646) 292-7958 tsohn@bairdstrategas.com SMALL-CAP ETFs: WHAT NOW? Over the last 3-months small relative large-cap ETF performance has moved into the basement of historical ... The tricky element now is the flows backdrop is far different from the last time the relative data hit similar levels... total small-cap ETF flows were ...
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What Seems Implausible, But Is Not Impossible:
Oct 14, 2026 ... Not a call, just a reminder that even what seems implausible is not impossible in this business. HYPERSCALERS CONTINUE TO ACT WELL... 6M RELATIVE HIGHS Proprietary Information - Please Do Not Redistribute. 3 10/14/2026 MAG 7 ETF: MAGS 50 & 200-Day MA MAGS Relative to S&P 500 Positive / Negative Trend Signals & 6-Month High Line ✓ KOSPI Peaked Right Here... Dem Senate Odds Broke Out Here 6-month relative highs for MAG 7 yesterday. AAPL RIGHT BACK TO THE HIGHS... Proprietary ...
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